Posted by: Rob Hof on August 19
Short answer: No. Not even close. Not for a long time, anyway.
But it's sure trying hard, and it would be dangerous for anyone to write off Microsoft. Its determination was on display today at the Search Engine Strategies conference in San Jose, Satya Nardella, Microsoft's senior VP of search, portal, and advertising platform group, told the crowd that he sees searchers moving from merely typing keywords into Google to getting tasks done.
Not coincidentally, getting tasks done is essentially Microsoft's main business, so that sounds a little too convenient. But in fact, searchers are already doing that to varying degrees. Nardella cited an interesting figure: About half the queries on Microsoft's Live Search site are part of search sessions that extend over 30 minutes.
At the same time, Microsoft is trying some interesting new things in search, from paying searchers through its new Live Search cashback to buying startups such as Powerset and Farecast for new features to search distribution deals with Hewlett-Packard and Facebook.
Not least, I don't think, as some folks do, that Google inevitably keeps getting more share of queries forever. When you get to around 70% share, with margins as fat as an Olympic shot putter, the market ecosystem gets out of whack and everyone in the pond works to get it back to some equilibrium. Even Google probably can't stop that in the long run.
For all that, though, I still don't see a killer strategy from Microsoft to really take on Google. Except maybe one, and it's risky: time. Right now, Nardella told me and my colleague Peter Burrows in an interview afterwards, search is mostly text-based. "But that will change," he said. "We just have to keep at it." Essentially, he's saying, Microsoft has time to keep chipping away at its archrival and pounce at the first signs of weakness or a market disruption.
Despite many missteps, including the handling of its attempted Yahoo acquisition--still its best chance to jumpstart its online ad strategy--Microsoft's pretty good at that game. It has the money to both spend on startups and new search features and wait watchfully for search to evolve beyond Google's iconic "ten blue links." If and when there's a shift to new modes of searching, as there inevitably will be, Microsoft may have an opening.
Problem for Microsoft and everyone else is that Google isn't standing still. Arguably, it's in the best position to revolutionize search before anyone else. Time may be Microsoft's best hope, but only if it doesn't run out of it first.
Posted by: Olga Kharif on August 18
Today, Google has launched yet another publicity campaign. FreeTheAirwaves.com asks the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to carve out a piece of airwaves, called white spaces, for free public broadband use.
But while the idea has appeal, and has gained support from FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, I just don't see it going anywhere any time soon -- despite this additional pressure from Google. Television broadcasters and wireless service providers are dead set against it. Devices supposed to work over white spaces keep failing government tests. And Google's publicity campaign doesn't help address either of these problems.
According to Google, the FCC will finally make its determination on white spaces this fall. But I wouldn't be surprised if the vote is delayed yet again, as it has been for more than a year, due to industry resistance and technology issues. Perhaps Google hopes the FreeTheAirwaves campaign will help move the needle. I am not so sure.
Posted by: Stephen Wildstrom on August 18
As on old-media guy myself when I'm not blogging or podcasting, I tend to bristle when bloggers treat mainstream media as some sort of all-purpose curse word. But I have to say that NBC's silly dismissal of the Web during the Olympics makes the MSM-bashers look awful good.
To me, the most amazing event of the Beijing Olympics was the record-shattering victory of Jamaica's Usain Bolt in the 100 m sprint. Video of the race--it lasts less than 10 seconds--is widely available on the Web. But the best you can get on nbcolympics.com is a still photo. And don't think about YouTube either--Bolt videos are being taken down, apparently at the demand of NBC Universal, as fast as they go up.
I thought for a brief moment that NBC had allowed some actual news to penetrate the calculated staleness of nbcolympics.com when a search turned up the headline: "Bolt strikes again, sets 200m mark." But, alas, it was a report of Bolt's month-old victory at an Olympic warmup meet in Athens.
Posted by: Olga Kharif on August 15
The first mobile phone based on Android, which is software supported by Google, will debut this fall. We know a lot about the phone's looks already: Made by HTC, it will have a touch screen and a slide-out Qwerty keyboard, according to this story. But today, Moe Tanabian, senior principal at IBB Consulting who has seen the device, has been able to give me a lot more details on its software.
Software is, in fact, what will make or break this gadget, which some call the gPhone. There have been plenty of touch-screen iPhone clones already, several of them from HTC. They've done well, but not nearly as well as Apple's iPhone. Could the Android phone change that? Perhaps.
Here's Tanabian's run-down on the Android phone's software features:
-- If you want to receive push e-mail, you'll have to use Google's Gmail. It's unclear that the phone will support Microsoft Exchange.
-- The phone will have access to upcoming T-Mobile App Store, which will be very similar to Apple's store featuring third-party iPhone applications. Only T-Mobile will likely place fewer restrictions on software developers, so that Android phone users may have more games and productivity apps to choose from.
-- The phone will come with Google's advertising software pre-installed. Customers who opt in to receive mobile ads from Google may be offered to buy the phone for a lower price, and may also pay lower monthly service fees. The Google platform will serve ads based on your interests and location, provided by the phone.
Tanabian has also provided me a few additional details on the hardware:
-- The Android phone's screen will be larger than the iPhone's, he believes.
-- The handset will feature a track ball, making it easier to navigate menus with one hand.
-- Down the road, perhaps the phone may be able to hook into T-Mobile's Hotspot @Home service, allowing people to make unlimited calls via the Android phone from home or office.
-- The Android phone will hit stores around Thanksgiving, not in September-October, as some news outlets have reported.
Continue reading "Google's Upcoming Phone: More Details"
Posted by: Stephen Wildstrom on August 15
In my column on the digital TV transition, space limitations forced me to shorthand what happens if you have cable, particularly if you have cable connected directly to a cable-ready TV.
If you get cable (or satellite) through a set top box, absolutely nothing will happen when the analog stations go dark next Feb. 17. You service provider will take care of all the transition issues ansd the box will continue to supply analog signals to your analog TV, typically through either a coaxial cable or a yellow-red-white composite video/audio set of cables.
Continue reading "Cable and the Digital Transition: Stuff I Left Out of the Column"
